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Experts still see Democrats in the lead


The Pollyvote team has completed its second survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late January survey, conducted between January 26 and 30, 17 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded. The mean forecast is that the Democrats will garner 52.0% of the major-party vote, compared to 48.0% for the Republicans. In the previous survey, conducted in late December, the experts had predicted a vote share of 51.7% for the Democrats and 48.3% for the Republicans. 

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
  2. Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
  3. Scott Blinder (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
  4. John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
  5. George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
  6. John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
  7. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  8. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  9. Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
  10. Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
  11. David Redlawsk (Rutgers University)
  12. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  13. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  14. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)

as well as three experts who preferred to remain anonymous.

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