Today, the PollyVote published its first forecast for the 2016 election. Her first forecast of the national popular two-party vote predicts a virtual tie, with the Democrats at 50.1%, and the Republicans at 49.9% of the vote.
The PollyVote first started in 2004 by political scientists and forecasting experts and has accurately forecast US presidential elections since then. For details about the procedure as well as historical data, see the published research or read the FAQ.
We will have some exciting additions to the PollyVote in 2016. Stay tuned!