At this year's APSA Annual Meeting, the Political Forecasting Group hosts four panels on election forecasting, all of which will be virtual: Day Time (PDT) Session title Discussant Speakers Wed, 9/29 6:00 -7:30 am Political Forecasting: Teaching and Practice Ross Burkhart Lara Brown, Lilly Goren &...
PollyVote has completed the fifth and final round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect a dead heat, with SPD gaining 24.2% of the.
PollyVote has completed the fourth round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts still expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 26.6% of.
Alfred G. Cuzán (University of West Florida), co-founder of the PollyVote (from which he retired last year), has a book named Laws of Politics, scheduled for publication in August. Here is the description from the publisher's website: Drawing on classic and contemporary scholarship and empirical analysis...
PollyVote has completed the third round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 30.0% of the.
PollyVote has completed the second round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 27.4%, roughly 5.
PollyVote has completed the first round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 28.7%, nearly 6 points ahead of the Greens, which the experts see at 23.0%. The SPD is expected to...
With the support of the APSA Political Forecasting Group, Bruno Jérôme and I are putting together a symposium of papers on “Forecasting the 2021 German Elections”, which will be published in PS:.
As in previous elections since 2004, PollyVote once again did a very good job in predicting the popular vote. In its final forecast, the PollyVote predicted that Joe Biden will.
PollyVote's work for this election cycle is done. Here is an overview of the final forecasts, and how they have developed over time. National vote According to the PollyVote, it is virtually certain that Joe Biden will win most votes. The final forecast is that Biden...