PollyVote has completed the fifth and final round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect a dead heat, with SPD gaining 24.2% of the vote, slightly ahead of the CDU/CSU, which is predicted to gain 23.6% of the vote. The...
PollyVote has completed the fourth round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts still expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 26.6% of.
Alfred G. Cuzán (University of West Florida), co-founder of the PollyVote (from which he retired last year), has a book named Laws of Politics, scheduled for publication in August. Here.
PollyVote has completed the third round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 30.0% of the vote, a gain of nearly three points compared to the last survey round. The Greens lose...
PollyVote has completed the second round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 27.4%, roughly 5.
PollyVote has completed the first round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 28.7%, nearly 6.
With the support of the APSA Political Forecasting Group, Bruno Jérôme and I are putting together a symposium of papers on “Forecasting the 2021 German Elections”, which will be published in PS: Political Science & Politics. We are interested in a diversity of approaches to forecasting (e.g., poll aggregation,...
As in previous elections since 2004, PollyVote once again did a very good job in predicting the popular vote. In its final forecast, the PollyVote predicted that Joe Biden will.
PollyVote's work for this election cycle is done. Here is an overview of the final forecasts, and how they have developed over time. National vote According to the PollyVote, it.
The PollyVote has completed its ninth and final survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from October 31 to November 2nd, twelve political science professors from a variety of U.S. universities predicted that Joe Biden is likely to win the electoral college...