PollyVote has completed its January expert survey for this year’s French presidential election. With respect to the first round results, the expert consensus is pretty much in line with recent polls in that President Macron is likely to gain most of the votes. When it comes...
At this year's APSA Annual Meeting, the Political Forecasting Group hosts four panels on election forecasting, all of which will be virtual: Day Time (PDT) Session title Discussant Speakers Wed,.
PollyVote has completed the fifth and final round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect a dead heat, with SPD gaining 24.2% of the.
PollyVote has completed the fourth round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts still expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 26.6% of the vote. However, the party lost 3.4 percentage points compared to the last survey round in...
Alfred G. Cuzán (University of West Florida), co-founder of the PollyVote (from which he retired last year), has a book named Laws of Politics, scheduled for publication in August. Here.
PollyVote has completed the third round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 30.0% of the.
PollyVote has completed the second round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 27.4%, roughly 5 points ahead of the Greens, which the experts see at 22.7%. The SPD is expected to...
PollyVote has completed the first round of its monthly expert survey for this year’s German federal election. The experts expect the CDU/CSU to be the strongest party with 28.7%, nearly 6.
With the support of the APSA Political Forecasting Group, Bruno Jérôme and I are putting together a symposium of papers on “Forecasting the 2021 German Elections”, which will be published in PS:.
As in previous elections since 2004, PollyVote once again did a very good job in predicting the popular vote. In its final forecast, the PollyVote predicted that Joe Biden will gain 52.2% of the two-party popular vote, a forecast that has remained remarkably stable since it...