Massachusetts: New WBUR/MassINC poll shows Clinton with 26 points lead

WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll on November 7. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

WBUR/MassINC poll results
57

Clinton

31

Trump

Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 16 with 502 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Latest Boston Globe/Suffolk poll in Massachusetts: Trump trails by a overwhelming margin

Results of a new poll conducted by Boston Globe/Suffolk were circulated on November 7. The poll asked participants from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Boston Globe/Suffolk poll results
57

Clinton

25

Trump

According to the results, 57.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 24 to October 26. A total of 500 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 69.5% for Clinton and 30.5% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Boston Globe/Suffolk poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 4.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: New PPP (D) poll has Trump behind by 33 points

On November 7, PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

PPP (D) poll results
61

Clinton

28

Trump

The results show that 61.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between April 15 and April 17. The sample size was 879 registered voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New OpinionWorks poll in Maryland: Clinton holds whopping lead

Results of a new poll administered by OpinionWorks were released on November 7. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

OpinionWorks poll results
54

Clinton

25

Trump

Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: New Goucher College poll shows Clinton with 33 points lead

Results of a new poll administered by Goucher College were circulated on November 7. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Goucher College poll results
58

Clinton

25

Trump

The results show that 58.0% of respondents would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Clinton with narrow advantage in latest Morning Call poll

Results of a new poll conducted by Morning Call were released. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Morning Call poll results
48

Clinton

42

Trump

The results show that 48.0% of respondents intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 30 to November 4 among 405 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.5%. Relative to her numbers in the Morning Call poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Gravis poll

Gravis published the results of a new poll on November 5. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Gravis poll results
47

Clinton

45

Trump

According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between November 1 and November 2. The sample size was 1016 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. To compare: Only 51.0% was gained by Clinton in the Gravis poll on June 28, for Trump this result was 49.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 51.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll in Arizona: Trump with 5 points lead

On October 24, NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
41

Clinton

46

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 41.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between October 30 and November 1. The sample size was 719 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 47.1% for Clinton and 52.9% for Trump. In the most recent NBC-WSJ-Marist poll on September 8 Clinton obtained 49.4%, while Trump obtained only 50.6%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Arizona sees Trump at 52.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Trump's poll average is 0.7 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.0 point below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

5 points lead for Clinton in latest NBC News poll

NBC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

NBC News poll results
48

Clinton

43

Trump

Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from November 3 to November 5 among 1282 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. To compare: 53.7% was obtained by Clinton in the NBC News poll on October 30, for Trump this result was only 46.3%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.8%. In comparison to her numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

North Carolina: Clinton tied with Trump in new NY Times/Siena*NY Times/Siena* poll

Results of a new poll carried out by NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena were spread. The poll asked interviewees from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena poll results
44

Clinton

44

Trump

The results show that billionaire Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have identical levels of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.

The poll was conducted from November 4 to November 6. A total of 800 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton currently runs at 49.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.7 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% and Trump 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.