Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.6% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will win 47.5%. In comparison, on November 7, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Georgia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton, and 52.2% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on November 7 Trump was predicted to garner 51.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.8% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will win 49.2%.

Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they may contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Washington, D.C.: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 91.8% for Clinton, and 8.2% for Trump in Washington, D.C.. In comparison, on November 7, Clinton was predicted to win only 91.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Washington, D.C..

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 52.3%. In comparison, on November 7 Trump was predicted to collect 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Mexico: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.8% for Clinton, and 46.3% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on November 7 Trump was predicted to win 46.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Wyoming: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 25.5% for Clinton, and 74.5% for Trump in Wyoming.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 69.8% of the two-party vote in Wyoming. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Wyoming.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

West Virginia: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 33.3% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, while Trump will end up with 66.7%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, since they can include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Utah.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 66.5% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, while Trump will win 33.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 67.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.