Results of a new national poll administered by Economist were released. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Economist poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between November 4 and November 7. The sample size was 3669 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-1.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. On November 1 Clinton obtained only 51.6% in the Economist poll and Trump obtained 48.4%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Economist poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.