The Bread and Peace model, developed by Douglas Hibbs, predicts the two-party popular vote based on just two fundamental variables that systematically affected post-war aggregate votes for president:
- Weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and
- Cumulative US military fatalities due to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign wars.
For more information about the model and its application to U.S. presidential elections since 1992, see Douglas Hibbs’ private website.
The 2016 Bread and Peace model predicts a victory for Hillary Clinton with 53.9% of the major party vote (compared to 46.1% for Donald Trump).
The chart on the right shows the forecasts of the Bread and Peace model and the actual election results since 2004. On average across the three elections, the model’s forecast missed the final election outcome by only 2.1 percentage points.