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PollyVote

Evidence-based election forecasting since 2004

  • Forecast
  • News
  • Method
    • Combining forecasts
    • Popular vote
      • Polls
        • Election Projection
        • HuffPost Pollster
        • RealClearPolitics
        • TPM PollTracker
      • Prediction markets
        • IEM
      • Expert judgment
      • Citizen forecasts
      • Econometric models
        • Bread and Peace
        • Convention bump
        • DeSart
        • Electoral-cycle
        • Fair
        • Fiscal model
        • Holbrook
        • Jérôme & Jérôme
        • Leading indicators
        • Lewis-Beck & Tien
        • Primary model
        • Time for change
        • Trial-heat
      • Index models
        • Big-issue
        • Bio-index
        • Issue-index
        • Issues and Leaders
        • Keys to the White House
    • Electoral Votes
    • Track record
      • Compare forecasts
      • Compare accuracy
  • About
    • FAQ
    • Publications
    • For the media
    • Data
    • PollyBot
    • Team
    • Imprint
  • Deutsch
PollyVote

Popular vote forecast

The PollyVote combines forecasts within and across the following component methods to calculate its popular vote forecast: polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, citizen forecasts, econometric models, and index models. The chart below allows you to compare the PollyVote to the forecasts from each of its component methods.

The chart was developed by Hina Imran.

  • Forecast
  • News
  • Method
    • Combining forecasts
    • Popular vote
      • Polls
        • Election Projection
        • HuffPost Pollster
        • RealClearPolitics
        • TPM PollTracker
      • Prediction markets
        • IEM
      • Expert judgment
      • Citizen forecasts
      • Econometric models
        • Bread and Peace
        • Convention bump
        • DeSart
        • Electoral-cycle
        • Fair
        • Fiscal model
        • Holbrook
        • Jérôme & Jérôme
        • Leading indicators
        • Lewis-Beck & Tien
        • Primary model
        • Time for change
        • Trial-heat
      • Index models
        • Big-issue
        • Bio-index
        • Issue-index
        • Issues and Leaders
        • Keys to the White House
    • Electoral Votes
    • Track record
      • Compare forecasts
      • Compare accuracy
  • About
    • FAQ
    • Publications
    • For the media
    • Data
    • PollyBot
    • Team
    • Imprint
  • Deutsch
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