CBS News poll: Republicans are trailing

On March 21, CBS News distributed the results of a new national poll. 50.0% of respondents said that they intend to vote for the Democratic party, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to the Republican party. This poll was conducted from March 17 to March 20, among a random sample of 1058 participants. The error margin is +/-4.0 points.

Translating these results into two-party vote shares yields figures of 55.6% for the Democrats and 44.4% for the Republicans. In comparison, the PollyVote right now predicts the Democrats to win 52.6% of the two-party vote, which is 3.0 percentage points below their polling results.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Morning Consult: Republicans are behind

On March 18, Morning Consult released the results of a new national poll conducted on behalf of Reuters. According to the results, 45.0% of participants intend to vote for the Democratic party, while 37.0% intend to vote for the Republican Party. The Internet poll was conducted from March 16 to March 18 with 2011 registered voters.

Translating these results into two-party vote shares yields values of 54.9% for the Democrats and 45.1% for the Republicans. In comparison, the PollyVote right now forecasts the Democrats to garner 52.6% of the two-party vote, which is 2.3 percentage points lower than their polling results.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Clear lead for Democrats in Ipsos poll

Results of a new national poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of Reuters were distributed on March 17. The poll asked respondents for whom they would likely vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump. According to the results, 42.0% of participants are going to vote for Clinton, while 37.0% are going to vote for Trump. This poll was conducted via Internet from March 12 to March 16, among a random sample of 1437 registered voters.

Translating these results into two-party vote shares yields figures of 53.2% for the Democrats and 46.8% for the Republicans. The polling numbers for the Democrats are thus 0.7 percentage points higher than the combined PollyVote, which as of now forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.5%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Daily Pennsylvanian covers the PollyVote

The Daily Pennsylvanian talked to Scott Armstrong about the Pollyvote. Here are some of Scott’s key points.

On the motivation to launch the PollyVote in 2004

“What we were trying to do is to demonstrate to the world that if you use what we call ‘evidence based principles forecasting,’ you can improve just about any forecast in the world,” Armstrong said. He chose the presidential election for the purpose of gaining attention from the press and the general public.

On the benefits of combining forecasts:

“Most people think if you look at a forecast, you should try to pick the best one, but that’s false,” Armstrong noted. “In fact, if you use a combined forecast, you can very often, very often, do better than the best component in that combination.”

On the bio-index model‘s poor scoring for Donald Trump:

“We’ve never had anybody so low, it’s astonishing,” Armstrong said. “That should be an indication to the party that they are going to have a real problem if they select Trump.”

Very clear lead for Democrats in latest Ipsos poll

The results of a new national poll, conducted by Ipsos, were released on 9. March. In the survey participants were asked, whether they would vote for democrat Hillary Clinton or republican Donald Trump, assuming that these two candidates would win the primaries. The results show that 46.0% of interviewees are going to vote for the Democrats, whereas 35.0% said they would vote for GOP. The Internet poll was carried out between February 27 and March 2. The sample size was 1381 registered voters. Results have a +/-11.0 percentage points margin of error.

Converting these results into two-party vote shares yields figures of 56.8% for the Democrats and 43.2% for the Republicans. In comparison to the average results of other polls the democrats managed 2.6 percentage points the democrats did worse in this poll. In comparison, the PollyVote currently forecasts the Democrats to garner 52.4% of the two-party vote, which is 4.4 percentage points below their poll figures.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Armstrong challenges Polly

Scott Armstrong bets that he found a method that will help to further increase the accuracy of the combined PollyVote forecast.

In particular, Scott proposes that adding a naive model will improve accuracy when uncertainty is high, such when the election is still far away and when the parties’  eventual nominees are yet to be known. This suggestion is based on the Golden Rule of Forecasting, which recommends considering a naive model if the situation involves uncertainty.

In operational terms, Scott suggests the following:

  • Until the candidates from both parties are nominated on July 28, 2016: add the naive model, which predicts a vote share of 50% for each party, as a seventh component to the PollyVote.
  • From July 29th: move on with the regular PollyVote.

The chart above shows how the forecasts of the original PollyVote and Armstrong’s version that includes the naive model have developed from January until July 28th (after that, the forecasts are of course similar).

We will keep you posted on whether Scott is able to beat Polly for long-term forecasts! Stay updated:

Democrats hold clear lead in ABC News poll

Results of a new national poll carried out by ABC News were released on March 9. Participants were asked, who they would give their vote to, if the election were today. According to the results, 50.0% of participants would vote for the Democratic Party, while 41.0% would vote for the Republicans. The poll was carried out from March 3 to March 6 among 864 participants. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points.

Converting these results into two-party vote shares yields values of 55.0% for the Democrats and 45.1% for the Republicans. In comparison to the average results of other polls the democrats managed 0.8 percentage points the democrats did worse in this poll. In comparison, the PollyVote right now expects the Democrats to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote, which is 2.6 percentage points lower than their poll figures.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.