Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Politico/Morning Consult poll

Results of a new national poll conducted by Politico/Morning Consult were announced. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Politico/Morning Consult poll results
46

Clinton

43

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted via Internet from October 29 to October 30 among 1772 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. On October 20 Clinton received 53.5% in the Politico/Morning Consult poll and Trump received only 46.5%.

Results vs. other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.9%. Compared to numbers in the Politico/Morning Consult poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New ABC News/Washington Post poll: Clinton and Trump virtually tied

Results of a new national poll administered by ABC News/Washington Post were released. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

ABC News/Washington Post poll results
49

Clinton

47

Trump

According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The phone poll was carried out between October 26 and October 29. The sample size was 1695 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-2.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump. For comparison: 51.6% was obtained by Clinton in the ABC News/Washington Post poll on October 27, for Trump this result was only 48.4%.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.8%. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.5 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Washington, D.C.: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 91.9% of the two-party vote share in Washington, D.C., while Trump will win 8.1%.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 89.3% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington, D.C.: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 93.8% of the two-party vote share in Washington, D.C., whereas Trump will win 6.2%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 89.3% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 4.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Washington, D.C..

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new ABC News/Washington Post poll

ABC News/Washington Post published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

ABC News/Washington Post poll results
49

Clinton

46

Trump

Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted via phone from October 24 to October 27, among a random sample of 1148 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump. For comparison: 52.6% was gained by Clinton in the ABC News/Washington Post poll on October 26, for Trump this result was only 47.4%.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll Clinton's poll average is 1.6 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.3 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Latest UPI/CVOTER poll: Trump and Clinton virtually tied

Results of a new national poll conducted by UPI/CVOTER were distributed. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

UPI/CVOTER poll results
49

Clinton

47

Trump

Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out via Internet from October 20 to October 26 among 1363 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump. In the most recent UPI/CVOTER poll on October 23 Clinton obtained 52.1%, while Trump obtained only 47.9%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. In comparison to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Clinton's poll average is 2.1 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.9 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Latest ABC News/Washington Post poll: Clinton holds narrow advantage

ABC News/Washington Post released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

ABC News/Washington Post poll results
50

Clinton

45

Trump

Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The phone poll was in the field between October 23 and October 26. The sample size was 1109 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.3 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington, D.C.: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 93.8% for Clinton, and 6.2% for Trump in Washington, D.C..

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they may contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 89.3% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 4.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Washington, D.C..

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Washington, D.C.: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 91.9% of the two-party vote share in Washington, D.C., whereas Trump will end up with 8.1%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they may include large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 88.7% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Washington, D.C..

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Washington, D.C.: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 91.9% of the two-party vote share in Washington, D.C., while Trump will end up with 8.1%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 89.4% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.