PollyVote is back for the 2017 German federal election

PollyVote just published its first forecast for this year’s German federal election, which will be held on September 24.

This is the second time (after 2013) that the PollyVote provides forecast of German elections. For this, the PollyVote applies the same basic method of combining forecasts, which has been used for US elections since 2004. That is, the PollyVote combines forecasts within and across four component methods, namely polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, and quantitative models.

The first forecast predicts Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU to remain the strongest party, with a vote share of 33.1%, followed by the Social Democrats (SPD), which are predicted to gain 30.2% of the vote. The right-wing AfD (Alternative for Germany) is predicted to come in third with 9.9% of the vote, followed by the Left Party (7.9%) and the Greens (7.7%). The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is currently predicted to gain 6.7%, which puts them over the necessary 5% threshold to enter parliament.

The forecast will be updated at the German project website whenever new information becomes available.

 

Final PollyVote forecast: Clinton will win

All numbers are in and, according to the PollyVote, Hillary Clinton will become the first female president of the United States.

Popular and Electoral Vote Prediction

Clinton will win the popular vote by 5.0 percentage points in the two-party vote (52.5% vs. 47.5%). Based on the PollyVote’s historical error, Clinton’s chance to win the popular vote is above 99%. In terms of the Electoral College, Polly predicts Clinton to receive 323 electoral votes compared to 215 for Trump.

Forecast over the course of the campaign

Forecasting is useful only when it can aid decision-making. Thus, Election Eve forecasts are only for entertainment and betting— and writing victory and concession speeches.

The PollyVote has predicted Clinton to win beginning with its first release in early January 2016. Since the first Super Tuesday on March 1st, when it became clear that Trump would become the Republican nominee, Clinton’s lead in the PollyVote forecast averaged 5.6 points. Throughout the course of the campaign, it ranged from a minimum of 3.8 points to a maximum of 8.2 points. In other words, the PollyVote never had Trump close to winning.

Since its launch in 2004, the PollyVote has always correctly predicted the winner on any given day, months in advance, and with little forecast error. Tonight, we will find out whether Polly the Parrot will keep her clean slate. Check back in the days to come as we will provide analyses of the different forecasting methods’ accuracy.

Political scientists predict Clinton will win 334 electoral votes, compared to 204 for Donald Trump

The PollyVote team has conducted the fourth and final round of its state-level expert survey. According to the forecasts of 638 political scientists, Hillary Clinton will win 334 Electoral Votes, compared to 204 for Donald Trump.

This Electoral College prediction thus differs from the results of the previous survey round,  when the experts’ aggregate forecast was that Clinton would gain 358 Electoral Votes, compared to 180 for Trump. The difference is due to Iowa and Ohio, which the experts now see leaning towards the Republicans. For Arizona, the experts predict essentially a pure tossup in both median winning probabilities and vote shares. However, since the average forecast for Clinton’s vote share is slightly above 50%, Arizona is called for the Democrats.

The following map visualizes the experts’ median estimates regarding Clinton’s chance of winning each state.

Nebraska and Maine deserve special attention, since these two states allocate two Electoral Votes to the popular vote winner plus one each to the popular vote winner in each Congressional district. The experts predict that all districts will go with the state-wide popular with two exceptions.

  • In Nebraska’s 2nd district, the Democratic candidate is expected to win 51.0% of the two-party vote.
  • In Maine’s 2nd district, the Republican candidate is expected to win the popular vote with a two-party vote share of 50.6%.

Method

We reached out to political scientists across the country and asked them two short questions:

  1. What share of the vote do you expect the nominees to receive in your home state?
  2. What do you think is Hillary Clinton’s chance of winning the election in your home state?

For experts who regard Nebraska or Maine as their home state, we additionally asked them to predict the outcome in each congressional district.

The survey was conducted from November 6 to 7. A total of 638 experts made estimates as requested. The number of experts by state ranged from 2 to 44. The table below shows the number of respondents per state as well as the median answer for each question.

    Clinton’s predicted
State N Chance of winning Two-party vote
District of Columbia 16 100% 90.4
Hawaii 2 100% 72.3
Vermont 11 99% 67.0
Maryland 22 99% 63.2
Massachusetts 17 99% 66.7
New York 23 99% 63.2
California 21 99% 62.4
Illinois 23 99% 57.9
Connecticut 19 99% 57.9
New Jersey 4 99% 58.5
Washington 7 98% 56.5
Oregon 8 98% 56.8
Delaware 13 98% 62.8
Rhode Island 6 97% 58.8
New Mexico 4 97% 53.0
Minnesota 13 95% 53.2
Maine 8 90% 53.7
Wisconsin 14 89% 52.7
Virginia 44 85% 52.7
Nevada 8 85% 52.4
Michigan 12 83% 51.6
Pennsylvania 19 80% 52.1
Colorado 10 71% 52.0
New Hampshire 10 68% 52.7
Florida 19 55% 50.6
North Carolina 23 55% 51.1
Arizona 13 50% 50.0
Ohio 15 48% 49.5
Iowa 18 43% 48.9
Alaska 4 30% 47.0
Georgia 24 29% 47.6
Missouri 12 25% 47.5
Utah 15 15% 44.4
South Carolina 12 15% 46.3
Kansas 9 15% 43.3
Alabama 6 13% 37.9
Indiana 16 10% 44.2
Texas 22 10% 45.7
Kentucky 5 8% 41.2
Montana 5 5% 41.6
South Dakota 3 5% 42.1
Louisiana 8 5% 43.2
North Dakota 6 4% 36.6
Arkansas 8 3% 41.1
Mississippi 12 2% 42.0
Idaho 15 1% 39.0
Tennessee 5 1% 42.1
West Virginia 9 0% 35.5
Nebraska 5 0% 42.1
Wyoming 4 0% 28.8
Oklahoma 11 0% 30.9

Washington, D.C.: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 93.8% for Clinton, and 6.2% for Trump in Washington, D.C..

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Washington, D.C..

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Monmouth University poll shows Clinton with 6 points lead

Monmouth University published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Monmouth University poll results
50

Clinton

44

Trump

The results show that 50.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The phone poll was carried out between November 3 and November 6. The sample size was 748 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. On October 16 Clinton obtained 56.4% in the Monmouth University poll and Trump obtained only 43.6%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.0%. Relative to her numbers in the Monmouth University poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington, D.C.: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 91.9% of the two-party vote share in Washington, D.C., whereas Trump will win 8.1%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 91.4% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New ABC News/Washington Post poll: Clinton and Trump in a tossup

ABC News/Washington Post published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

ABC News/Washington Post poll results
48

Clinton

47

Trump

Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The phone poll was conducted from October 27 to October 30 with 1167 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. On October 29 Clinton obtained 51.0% in the ABC News/Washington Post poll and Trump obtained only 49.0%.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls has Clinton at 52.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New NBC/SurveyMonkey poll shows Clinton with 7 points lead

Results of a new national poll conducted by NBC/SurveyMonkey were distributed. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
51

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who responded, 51.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The Internet poll was carried out between October 24 and October 30. The sample size was 40816 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-0.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. To compare: 54.3% was gained by Clinton in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on October 16, for Trump this result was only 45.7%.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.9%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points lower. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Significant advantage for Clinton in NBC News poll

Results of a new national poll carried out by NBC News were circulated. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

NBC News poll results
51

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who replied, 51.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 24 to October 30 among 4081 participants. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-1.0 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often include large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. To compare: 55.4% was gained by Clinton in the NBC News poll on October 13, for Trump this result was only 44.6%.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.9%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Washington, D.C.: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 91.9% of the two-party vote share in Washington, D.C., whereas Trump will win 8.1%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 89.3% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.