New York: Overwhelming lead for Clinton in latest Siena poll

Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Siena poll results
51

Clinton

30

Trump

The results show that 51.0% of participants will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 15. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump. The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.0% of the two-party vote in New York.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in New York: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 63.2% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will end up with 36.9%. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to gain 64.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models often contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.1% of the two-party vote in New York. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New York: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 64.2% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will end up with 35.8%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to collect only 64.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in New York: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 64.1% for Clinton, and 35.9% for Trump in New York.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New York has Clinton at 0.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 64.1 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 11.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Siena poll in New York: Clinton with huge advantage

On November 7, Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Siena poll results
51

Clinton

30

Trump

The results show that 51.0% of participants intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 11 to September 15, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-5.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they can include substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump. In the most recent Siena poll on February 3 Clinton received 64.0%, while Trump received only 36.0%.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.5%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.1% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New York: New Siena poll shows Clinton with 25 points lead

On November 6, Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Siena poll results
57

Clinton

32

Trump

The results show that 57.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from January 31 to February 3 among 930 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-3.8 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump. On October 17 Clinton received 64.3% in the Siena poll and Trump received only 35.7%.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 62.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New York: New Emerson poll shows Trump trailing by 18 points

Emerson published the results of a new poll on November 6. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Emerson poll results
52

Clinton

34

Trump

According to the results, 52.0% of participants are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from August 28 to August 30, among a random sample of 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 60.5% for Clinton and 39.5% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in New York sees Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Latest Siena poll in New York: Trump trails by a overwhelming margin

On November 6, Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Siena poll results
54

Clinton

30

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 17 with 611 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.6 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New York: Clinton with solid advantage in new Emerson poll

On November 6, Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Emerson poll results
52

Clinton

34

Trump

Of those who responded, 52.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between August 28 and August 30. The sample size was 800 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 60.5% for Clinton and 39.5% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 63.1% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New York: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 64.7% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will end up with 35.3%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.