Latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat

KSTP/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
42

Clinton

45

Trump

The results show that 42.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 29 to November 2. A total of 516 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump. For comparison: 55.8% was obtained by Clinton in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on October 25, for Trump this number was only 44.2%.

Results in comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Minnesota polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.4%. Compared to his numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll Trump's poll average is 5.3 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 44.5% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote is 7.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota: Clinton with 13 points lead

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
48

Clinton

35

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from April 25 to April 27 with 800 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump. On October 22 Clinton obtained only 54.7% in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll and Trump obtained 45.4%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Minnesota has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Minnesota: Sustained advantage for Clinton in recent Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll

On October 25, Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
47

Clinton

39

Trump

According to the results, 47.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between October 20 and October 22. The sample size was 625 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.7% for Clinton and 45.4% for Trump. In the latest Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll on September 14 Clinton received only 53.7%, while Trump received 46.3%.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Minnesota polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Compared to her numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Minnesota: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 54.8% for Clinton, and 45.3% for Trump in Minnesota.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Minnesota.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Minnesota: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.8% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, while Trump will end up with 45.2%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to collect 55.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Minnesota: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 55.2% for Clinton, and 44.8% for Trump in Minnesota. In comparison, on November 3, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 55.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Minnesota econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. This value is 55.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Crosstab model.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Minnesota: Clinton holds substantial advantage in latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll

Results of a new poll conducted by KSTP/SurveyUSA were distributed on November 6. The poll asked interviewees from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
53

Clinton

42

Trump

Of those who responded, 53.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between October 22 and October 25. The sample size was 656 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 55.8% for Clinton and 44.2% for Trump. In the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on September 20 Clinton received only 53.3%, while Trump received 46.7%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Minnesota has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Minnesota: New KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows Clinton with 6 points lead

On October 10, KSTP/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
49

Clinton

43

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between September 16 and September 20. The sample size was 625 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. For comparison: Only 48.3% was obtained by Clinton in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on November 2, for Trump this number was 51.7%.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 52.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Minnesota. Compared to her numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Minnesota: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.8% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, while Trump will end up with 45.2%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Minnesota: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 55.0% for Clinton, and 45.1% for Trump in Minnesota. In comparison, on October 29 Trump was still predicted to obtain 45.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.