Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland poll in Maryland: Clinton holds huge lead

Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland poll results
63

Clinton

28

Trump

Of those who responded, 63.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from March 30 to April 3.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 70.0% for Clinton and 30.0% for Trump. In the latest Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland poll on April 3 Clinton obtained only 69.2%, while Trump obtained 30.8%.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.6 points below her polling numbers.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: New PPP (D) poll has Trump behind by 33 points

On November 7, PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

PPP (D) poll results
61

Clinton

28

Trump

The results show that 61.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between April 15 and April 17. The sample size was 879 registered voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New OpinionWorks poll in Maryland: Clinton holds whopping lead

Results of a new poll administered by OpinionWorks were released on November 7. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

OpinionWorks poll results
54

Clinton

25

Trump

Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: New Goucher College poll shows Clinton with 33 points lead

Results of a new poll administered by Goucher College were circulated on November 7. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Goucher College poll results
58

Clinton

25

Trump

The results show that 58.0% of respondents would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 64.9% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, whereas Trump will win 35.1%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 68.0% for Clinton, and 32.0% for Trump in Maryland.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Maryland.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 64.9% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, while Trump will win 35.1%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Maryland.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 68.1% for Clinton, and 32.0% for Trump in Maryland. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to collect 68.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Maryland.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 68.3% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, whereas Trump will end up with 31.7%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they can include large biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Maryland econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. This value is 68.3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 66.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 15.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 64.9% for Clinton, and 35.1% for Trump in Maryland.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Maryland. This value is 64.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart & Holbrook model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 66.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 12.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.