Massachusetts: New Western NE University*Western NE University* poll shows Trump trailing by 30 points

On November 7, Western NE UniversityWestern NE University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Western NE UniversityWestern NE University poll results
56

Clinton

26

Trump

Of those who replied, 56.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 23 to November 2 with 417 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-5.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 68.3% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 67.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Western NE UniversityWestern NE University poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Massachusetts: New WBUR/MassINC poll shows Clinton with 26 points lead

WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll on November 7. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

WBUR/MassINC poll results
57

Clinton

31

Trump

Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 16 with 502 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Latest Boston Globe/Suffolk poll in Massachusetts: Trump trails by a overwhelming margin

Results of a new poll conducted by Boston Globe/Suffolk were circulated on November 7. The poll asked participants from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Boston Globe/Suffolk poll results
57

Clinton

25

Trump

According to the results, 57.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 24 to October 26. A total of 500 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 69.5% for Clinton and 30.5% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Boston Globe/Suffolk poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 4.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Massachusetts: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 66.7% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, whereas Trump will end up with 33.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Massachusetts.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Massachusetts: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 65.7% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, while Trump will win 34.3%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Massachusetts: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 66.7% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, while Trump will end up with 33.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Massachusetts: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 65.8% for Clinton, and 34.2% for Trump in Massachusetts. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to collect 65.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Massachusetts.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Massachusetts: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 65.9% for Clinton, and 34.1% for Trump in Massachusetts. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 65.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 0.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Massachusetts. In comparison to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 65.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.3% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 13.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Massachusetts: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 66.7% for Clinton, and 33.4% for Trump in Massachusetts.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Massachusetts econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 66.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart & Holbrook model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 65.3% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Massachusetts. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 14.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

WBUR/MassINC poll in Massachusetts: Clinton with 26 points lead

WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll on November 6. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

WBUR/MassINC poll results
57

Clinton

31

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between October 13 and October 16. The sample size was 502 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. This value is 2.7 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.