Louisiana: New JMC Analytics poll shows Trump with 10 points lead

Results of a new poll carried out by JMC Analytics were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

JMC Analytics poll results
35

Clinton

45

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 35.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24 among 905 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump. On May 6 Clinton received only 40.9% in the JMC Analytics poll and Trump received 59.1%.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Louisiana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 41.4% for Clinton, and 58.6% for Trump in Louisiana.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Louisiana: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 41.5% for Clinton, and 58.5% for Trump in Louisiana.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts. The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Louisiana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 41.4% for Clinton, and 58.6% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was predicted to collect 58.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Louisiana sees Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 58.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Crosstab model. The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New JMC Analytics poll in Louisiana: Clinton trails by a significant margin

Results of a new poll conducted by JMC Analytics were released on November 6. The poll asked participants from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

JMC Analytics poll results
35

Clinton

45

Trump

Of those who responded, 35.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24, among a random sample of 905 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.3 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Trump leads in Louisiana by 10 points in latest JMC Analytics poll

On November 6, JMC Analytics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

JMC Analytics poll results
35

Clinton

45

Trump

Of those who responded, 35.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24. A total of 905 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-3.3 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 40.9% was gained by Clinton in the JMC Analytics poll on May 6, for Trump this number was 59.1%.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.6%. Relative to his numbers in the JMC Analytics poll Trump's poll average is 3.3 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Louisiana: Trump with sizable lead in recent JMC Analytics poll

Results of a new poll carried out by JMC Analytics were circulated on November 5. The poll asked respondents from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

JMC Analytics poll results
36

Clinton

52

Trump

According to the results, 36.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 52.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from May 5 to May 6 among 624 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 40.9% for Clinton and 59.1% for Trump. On September 24 Clinton obtained 43.8% in the JMC Analytics poll and Trump obtained only 56.3%.

Results compared to other polls

Trump currently achieves 59.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Louisiana. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the JMC Analytics poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.5 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Louisiana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 41.6% of the two-party vote share in Louisiana, whereas Trump will end up with 58.5%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to achieve 59.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Louisiana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Louisiana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 41.0% for Clinton, and 59.0% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to achieve 59.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Louisiana: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 41.0% for Clinton, and 59.0% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on October 28 Trump was predicted to win 58.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.