Trump leads in Kansas by 24 points in latest Fort Hays St. University poll

Results of a new poll carried out by Fort Hays St. University were released. The poll asked respondents from Kansas for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Fort Hays St. University poll results
34

Clinton

58

Trump

Of those who responded, 34.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 58.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from November 1 to November 3 among 313 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-0.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 37.0% for Clinton and 63.0% for Trump. On July 21 Clinton received 38.0% in the Fort Hays St. University poll and Trump received only 62.0%.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Kansas. This means that the combined PollyVote is 5.6 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Kansas: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 36.0% for Clinton, and 64.0% for Trump in Kansas.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Kansas: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 40.8% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will win 59.2%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Kansas: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 40.9% for Clinton, and 59.2% for Trump in Kansas. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to collect 41.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Kansas: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 36.0% for Clinton, and 64.0% for Trump in Kansas.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Kansas: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 41.2% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will win 58.8%. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was predicted to obtain 58.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kansas sees Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 58.8 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Trump leads in Kansas by 17 points in new Fort Hays St. University poll

On November 6, Fort Hays St. University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Kansas were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Fort Hays St. University poll results
27

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 27.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from July 11 to July 21 among 542 likely voters.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 38.0% for Clinton and 62.0% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.7 points below his polling numbers.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Kansas: Sizable advantage for Trump in latest Fort Hays St. University poll

Results of a new poll administered by Fort Hays St. University were distributed on November 6. The poll asked respondents from Kansas for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Fort Hays St. University poll results
27

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who responded, 27.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from July 11 to July 21. A total of 542 likely voters responded.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 38.0% for Clinton and 62.0% for Trump. To compare: Only 37.0% was gained by Clinton in the Fort Hays St. University poll on November 3, for Trump this number was 63.0%.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. Hence, Polly's prediction is 4.7 points below his polling numbers.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Fort Hays St. University poll in Kansas: Clinton trails by a huge margin

Results of a new poll administered by Fort Hays St. University were spread on November 5. The poll asked participants from Kansas for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

Fort Hays St. University poll results
34

Clinton

58

Trump

Of those who replied, 34.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 58.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from November 1 to November 3. A total of 313 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-0.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 37.0% for Clinton and 63.0% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Kansas has Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Fort Hays St. University poll Trump's poll average is 63 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. That is, the combined PollyVote is 5.7 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Kansas: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 36.0% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will win 64.0%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Kansas. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 7.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Kansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.