New PPIC poll in California: Clinton with huge lead

PPIC published the results of a new poll on November 7. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

PPIC poll results
54

Clinton

28

Trump

According to the results, 54.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 14 to October 23 among 1024 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

Clinton is currently at 63.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. In comparison to her numbers in the PPIC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.9 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

California: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 65.5% for Clinton, and 34.5% for Trump in California.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 63.4% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will end up with 36.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in California.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 65.5% for Clinton, and 34.5% for Trump in California.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in California.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 63.5% for Clinton, and 36.5% for Trump in California. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was predicted to garner 36.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they may include substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 63.6% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will win 36.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single models can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. Compared to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 63.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 10.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 65.5% for Clinton, and 34.5% for Trump in California.

Putting the results in context

Single models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart & Holbrook model Clinton's econometric model average is 65.5 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 12.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New PPIC poll in California: Clinton with whopping lead

PPIC published the results of a new poll on November 6. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

PPIC poll results
54

Clinton

28

Trump

Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 14 to October 23, among a random sample of 1024 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they can include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Clinton can currently count on 63.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the PPIC poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

PPIC poll in California: Trump behind by 26 points

Results of a new poll carried out by PPIC were distributed on November 6. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

PPIC poll results
54

Clinton

28

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 14 to October 23, among a random sample of 1024 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 63.0%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the PPIC poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 63.6% for Clinton, and 36.4% for Trump in California. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to gain 64.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.