New citizen forecast predicts tight race: Clinton 50.5% vs Trump 49.5%

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll provided updated citizen forecasts. In the polls, people were asked: “Regardless of whom you support, if Clinton and Trump are the nominees for president, who would you expect to win: Clinton or Trump?” According to the results, 50% of respondents expected Clinton to win, whereas 40% predicted a Trump victory. Translating these results into two-party vote-shares yield a forecast of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for the Trump.

In comparison, the combined PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the popular two-party vote.

Trump slightly favored in updated DeSart model

Jay DeSart updated his long-range model with April polling data. The most recent forecast slightly favors Trump in a likely match-up against Clinton. In particular, the DeSart model predicts Trump to gain 50.9% of the vote, compared to 49.1% for Clinton. Trump is also predicted to win the electoral college with 295 votes, compared to 243 for Clinton.

The vote-share forecast currently enters the combined PollyVote with a weight of 3%. In comparison, today’s PollyVote forecast predicts the Democrats to gain 53.3% of the vote.

Democrats lead by 6 points in latest expert survey

The Pollyvote team has completed its fifth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late April survey, conducted between April 27 and 30, 15 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.

The mean forecast is that the Democrats will garner 53.2% of the major-party vote (compared to 46.8% for the Republicans), with individual forecasts ranging from a minimum of 49.5% to a maximum of 55.2%. Only one expert expected the Republicans to win a majority of the vote.

The predicted Democratic vote share is thus slightly (0.1 percentage points) higher than in the previous survey, conducted in late March, when the mean expert experts had predicted a vote share of 53.1% for the Democrats and 46.9% for the Republicans.

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.

Experts see Democrats’ lead widen

The Pollyvote team has completed its fourth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late March survey, conducted between March 28 and 31, 14 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.

For the first time in this election cycle, all responding experts expected a Democratic win, with forecasts of the popular vote ranging from a minimum of 50.8% to a maximum of 56.8%. The mean forecast is that the Democrats will garner 53.1% of the major-party vote (compared to 46.9% for the Republicans).

The predicted Democratic vote share is thus more than one percentage point higher than in the previous survey, conducted in late February, when the mean expert experts had predicted a vote share of 52.0% for the Democrats and 48.0% for the Republicans.

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.

Issue models turn in Democrats’ favor

After months of no issue polls, an ABC News/Washington Post survey finally provides information about how people rate the candidates’ ability to handle the issues. In particular, the survey asked participants whom of either Clinton or Trump they would expect to do a better job in handling four issues: terrorism (which is currently seen as the most important issue), the economy, immigration, and a potential international crisis.

Participants strongly favored Clinton on all four issues (see Figure). In comparison, prior surveys that asked people to compare Clinton to a generic Republican candidate tended to favor the Republicans. In addition to the bio-index model, this provides further support for the notion that Trump would likely be a poor choice as a nominee for the Republican Party.

The results from the issue questions are used in two models, namely the issue-index and the big-issue models. While, prior to the release of the survey, both models predicted the Republicans to win the popular vote, their forecasts have turned. The issue-index model predicts the Democrats to gain 52.0% of the vote. The big-issue also favors the Democrats, despite predicting a closer race, at 50.6%.

 

First citizen forecasts available: PollyVote now with forecasts from all six components

Polly added citizen forecasts as the sixth and final component method to its combined forecast. Citizen forecasts, also known as vote expectation surveys, are among the most accurate methods available for forecasting elections.

Citizen forecasts are derived from surveys that include the vote expectation question, which asks respondents who they expect to become president. For example, an  ABC News/Washington Post poll, published this week, asked: “Regardless of whom you support, if Clinton and Trump are the nominees for president, who would you expect to win: Clinton or Trump?” According to the results, 59% of respondents expected Clinton to win, whereas 36% predicted a Trump victory. Translating these results into two-party vote-shares yield a forecast of 51.6% for the Democrats and 48.4% for the Republicans. This is the information Polly uses for her the citizen forecasts component.

Adding the citizen forecasts had little immediate impact on the PollyVote, which currently predicts the Democrats to gain 52.5% of the popular two-party vote.

Compute your own bio-index model forecast

You can now compute your own forecasts based on the bio-index model, which predicts the election outcome based on information about candidates’ biographies. This feature allows you

  1. See how the model forecast would change for different variable coding.
  2. Compare two hypothetical candidates against each other.
  3. See how you would perform as a candidate.

To do so, go to the bio-index model page, scroll all the way down to Table 1, and adjust the variable values in the green highlighted cells. Whenever you change a variable value, the forecast will be updated at the bottom of the table.

Republicans heavily favored in updated DeSart model

Jay DeSart updated his long-range model with February polling data. The most recent forecast favors the Republican candidates in hypothetical match-ups against both Clinton and Sanders.

For the likely outcome of a Clinton-Trump race, the DeSart model predicts Trump to gain 51.6% of the vote, compared to 48.4% for Clinton. This forecast currently enters the combined PollyVote with a weight of 4%. Trump is also predicted to win the electoral college with 311 votes, compared to 227 for Clinton.

The forecast is in contrast to the most recent PollyVote forecast, which predicts the Democrats to gain 52.2% of the vote.

Jérôme & Jérôme model update: Republicans predicted to gain 50.8%

Bruno and Véronique Jérôme updated their state-by-state political economy model. The model now predicts the Democrats to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote, compared to 50.8% for the Republicans. The model forecast currently enters the combined PollyVote with a weight of four percent.

Interestingly, although the model predicts the Democrats to lose the popular vote, they are still expected to win the electoral vote. The latest forecast predicts the Democrats to gain 325 electoral votes, compared to 213 for the Republicans.

Expert panel forecast: Democrats remain at 52.0%

The Pollyvote team has completed its third survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late February survey, conducted between February 26 and 29, fifteen experts responded. The forecasts for the Democratic popular two-party vote ranged from a minimum of 48.5% to a maximum of 54.5%. The mean forecast was 52.0%.

This is the exact same result as in the previous survey conducted a month ago and also perfectly matches the latest combined PollyVote forecast.

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.