Massachusetts: New WBUR/MassINC poll shows Clinton with 26 points lead

WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll on November 7. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

WBUR/MassINC poll results
57

Clinton

31

Trump

Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 16 with 502 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Latest Boston Globe/Suffolk poll in Massachusetts: Trump trails by a overwhelming margin

Results of a new poll conducted by Boston Globe/Suffolk were circulated on November 7. The poll asked participants from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Boston Globe/Suffolk poll results
57

Clinton

25

Trump

According to the results, 57.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 24 to October 26. A total of 500 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 69.5% for Clinton and 30.5% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Boston Globe/Suffolk poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 4.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: New PPP (D) poll has Trump behind by 33 points

On November 7, PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

PPP (D) poll results
61

Clinton

28

Trump

The results show that 61.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between April 15 and April 17. The sample size was 879 registered voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New OpinionWorks poll in Maryland: Clinton holds whopping lead

Results of a new poll administered by OpinionWorks were released on November 7. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

OpinionWorks poll results
54

Clinton

25

Trump

Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: New Goucher College poll shows Clinton with 33 points lead

Results of a new poll administered by Goucher College were circulated on November 7. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Goucher College poll results
58

Clinton

25

Trump

The results show that 58.0% of respondents would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.6% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will win 47.5%. In comparison, on November 7, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Georgia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton, and 52.2% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on November 7 Trump was predicted to garner 51.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.8% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will win 49.2%.

Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they may contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Washington, D.C.: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 91.8% for Clinton, and 8.2% for Trump in Washington, D.C.. In comparison, on November 7, Clinton was predicted to win only 91.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Washington, D.C..

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 52.3%. In comparison, on November 7 Trump was predicted to collect 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.