PollyVote just published its first forecast for this year’s German federal election, which will be held on September 24.
This is the second time (after 2013) that the PollyVote provides forecast of German elections. For this, the PollyVote applies the same basic method of combining forecasts, which has been used for US elections since 2004. That is, the PollyVote combines forecasts within and across four component methods, namely polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, and quantitative models.
The first forecast predicts Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU to remain the strongest party, with a vote share of 33.1%, followed by the Social Democrats (SPD), which are predicted to gain 30.2% of the vote. The right-wing AfD (Alternative for Germany) is predicted to come in third with 9.9% of the vote, followed by the Left Party (7.9%) and the Greens (7.7%). The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is currently predicted to gain 6.7%, which puts them over the necessary 5% threshold to enter parliament.
The forecast will be updated at the German project website whenever new information becomes available.