Political scientists predict Clinton will win 334 electoral votes, compared to 204 for Donald Trump

The PollyVote team has conducted the fourth and final round of its state-level expert survey. According to the forecasts of 638 political scientists, Hillary Clinton will win 334 Electoral Votes, compared to 204 for Donald Trump.

This Electoral College prediction thus differs from the results of the previous survey round,  when the experts’ aggregate forecast was that Clinton would gain 358 Electoral Votes, compared to 180 for Trump. The difference is due to Iowa and Ohio, which the experts now see leaning towards the Republicans. For Arizona, the experts predict essentially a pure tossup in both median winning probabilities and vote shares. However, since the average forecast for Clinton’s vote share is slightly above 50%, Arizona is called for the Democrats.

The following map visualizes the experts’ median estimates regarding Clinton’s chance of winning each state.

Nebraska and Maine deserve special attention, since these two states allocate two Electoral Votes to the popular vote winner plus one each to the popular vote winner in each Congressional district. The experts predict that all districts will go with the state-wide popular with two exceptions.

• In Nebraska’s 2nd district, the Democratic candidate is expected to win 51.0% of the two-party vote.
• In Maine’s 2nd district, the Republican candidate is expected to win the popular vote with a two-party vote share of 50.6%.

Method

We reached out to political scientists across the country and asked them two short questions:

1. What share of the vote do you expect the nominees to receive in your home state?
2. What do you think is Hillary Clinton’s chance of winning the election in your home state?

For experts who regard Nebraska or Maine as their home state, we additionally asked them to predict the outcome in each congressional district.

The survey was conducted from November 6 to 7. A total of 638 experts made estimates as requested. The number of experts by state ranged from 2 to 44. The table below shows the number of respondents per state as well as the median answer for each question.

 Clinton’s predicted State N Chance of winning Two-party vote District of Columbia 16 100% 90.4 Hawaii 2 100% 72.3 Vermont 11 99% 67.0 Maryland 22 99% 63.2 Massachusetts 17 99% 66.7 New York 23 99% 63.2 California 21 99% 62.4 Illinois 23 99% 57.9 Connecticut 19 99% 57.9 New Jersey 4 99% 58.5 Washington 7 98% 56.5 Oregon 8 98% 56.8 Delaware 13 98% 62.8 Rhode Island 6 97% 58.8 New Mexico 4 97% 53.0 Minnesota 13 95% 53.2 Maine 8 90% 53.7 Wisconsin 14 89% 52.7 Virginia 44 85% 52.7 Nevada 8 85% 52.4 Michigan 12 83% 51.6 Pennsylvania 19 80% 52.1 Colorado 10 71% 52.0 New Hampshire 10 68% 52.7 Florida 19 55% 50.6 North Carolina 23 55% 51.1 Arizona 13 50% 50.0 Ohio 15 48% 49.5 Iowa 18 43% 48.9 Alaska 4 30% 47.0 Georgia 24 29% 47.6 Missouri 12 25% 47.5 Utah 15 15% 44.4 South Carolina 12 15% 46.3 Kansas 9 15% 43.3 Alabama 6 13% 37.9 Indiana 16 10% 44.2 Texas 22 10% 45.7 Kentucky 5 8% 41.2 Montana 5 5% 41.6 South Dakota 3 5% 42.1 Louisiana 8 5% 43.2 North Dakota 6 4% 36.6 Arkansas 8 3% 41.1 Mississippi 12 2% 42.0 Idaho 15 1% 39.0 Tennessee 5 1% 42.1 West Virginia 9 0% 35.5 Nebraska 5 0% 42.1 Wyoming 4 0% 28.8 Oklahoma 11 0% 30.9

4 thoughts on “Political scientists predict Clinton will win 334 electoral votes, compared to 204 for Donald Trump”

1. Kristian Lunow Nielsen says:

Hi

Is it possible to get a deeper look into the results from your survey for the state of Arizona and Ohio?
I would like to see how each participant responded and not just the median answer.

On before hand, thank you so much.

Best regards,

Kristian

2. mahé says:

hello. what are the figures for in the last collumn? like 90.4 in columbia?

1. Hi, that’s the predicted two-party vote in that state.