On November 7, Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
The results show that 51.0% of participants intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 11 to September 15, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-5.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they can include substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump. In the most recent Siena poll on February 3 Clinton received 64.0%, while Trump received only 36.0%.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.5%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.1% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.