New York: New Emerson poll shows Trump trailing by 18 points

Emerson published the results of a new poll on November 6. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Emerson poll results
52

Clinton

34

Trump

According to the results, 52.0% of participants are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from August 28 to August 30, among a random sample of 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 60.5% for Clinton and 39.5% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in New York sees Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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