On November 6, Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 52.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 28 and August 30. The sample size was 800 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 60.5% for Clinton and 39.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 63.1% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.