State-wide survey of political scientists: Clinton now at 358 electoral votes

The PollyVote team has conducted the third round of its state-level expert survey. According to the forecasts of 673 political scientists, Hillary Clinton will win 358 Electoral Votes, compared to 180 for Donald Trump.

This Electoral College prediction thus differs from the results of the first and second survey rounds,  when the experts’ aggregate forecast was that Clinton would gain 347 Electoral Votes, compared to 191 for Trump. The difference is due to Arizona (with its 11 Electoral Votes), which the experts now see leaning slightly towards the Democrats.

The following map visualizes the experts’ median estimates regarding Clinton’s chance of winning each state.

Nebraska and Maine deserve special attention, since these two states allocate two Electoral Votes to the popular vote winner plus one each to the popular vote winner in each Congressional district. The experts predict that all districts will go with the state-wide popular with two exceptions.

  • In Nebraska’s 2nd district, the Democratic candidate is expected to win 50.8% of the two-party vote.
  • In Maine’s 2nd district, the Republican candidate is expected to win the popular vote with a two-party vote share of 51.0%.

Method

We reached out to political scientists across the country and asked them two short questions:

  1. What share of the vote do you expect the nominees to receive in your home state?
  2. What do you think is Hillary Clinton’s chance of winning the election in your home state?

For experts who regard Nebraska or Maine as their home state, we additionally asked them to predict the outcome in each congressional district.

The survey was conducted from October 15 to 19. A total of 673 experts made estimates as requested. The number of experts by state ranged from 2 to 39. The table below shows the number of respondents per state as well as the median answer for each question.

Clinton’s predicted
State N Chance of winning Two-party vote
District of Columbia 15 100% 93.8
Vermont 9 100% 67.4
Hawaii 2 100% 76.5
Maryland 26 100% 67.0
New Mexico 5 100% 59.0
Massachusetts 14 100% 67.6
New York 26 99% 65.2
California 23 99% 63.8
Rhode Island 5 99% 61.1
Washington 12 99% 60.3
Illinois 24 99% 59.7
Connecticut 21 99% 62.4
Oregon 9 95% 57.8
New Jersey 5 95% 63.2
Minnesota 18 95% 55.3
Michigan 12 91% 54.3
Delaware 11 90% 63.2
Wisconsin 14 90% 53.9
Virginia 39 90% 56.0
Pennsylvania 20 90% 54.3
Colorado 8 88% 54.9
Maine 14 84% 54.4
New Hampshire 14 80% 54.2
Nevada 5 75% 53.8
Florida 22 73% 51.6
North Carolina 24 65% 51.3
Ohio 12 58% 51.4
Iowa 19 52% 50.5
Arizona 16 50% 50.5
Missouri 11 45% 47.8
Utah 13 40% 47.6
Georgia 26 39% 48.4
Alaska 5 38% 45.8
South Carolina 14 25% 47.0
Indiana 15 20% 46.4
Texas 19 20% 46.7
Kansas 11 15% 46.0
Montana 5 15% 46.2
Kentucky 4 14% 41.5
Arkansas 12 11% 43.2
South Dakota 6 9% 40.3
North Dakota 6 7% 42.0
West Virginia 9 7% 37.6
Mississippi 14 7% 44.7
Alabama 5 5% 38.9
Louisiana 11 5% 40.9
Idaho 14 5% 37.8
Tennessee 8 4% 43.3
Nebraska 4 3% 42.2
Wyoming 4 1% 30.0
Oklahoma 13 0% 37.5

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