Experts predict Clinton will win popular vote by 4 points

The PollyVote team has completed its 10th survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between September 28 and 30, and thus after the first presidential debate, 13 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.

Similar to the previous round, all respondents expect a Clinton win. However, her lead has narrowed substantially.

Whereas, in late August, the experts expected that Clinton will win the popular vote by 7 points, the new average forecast is 1.3 percentage points lower, at 52.2% of the two-party vote (or about a 4-point margin). The individual forecasts ranged from 51.6% to 53.7%, with a standard deviation of only 0.7 points.

 

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
  2. Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
  3. Keith Gaddie (University of Oklahoma)
  4. John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
  5. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  6. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  7. Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
  8. Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
  9. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  10. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  11. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  12. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)

and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.

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