Survey of political scientists: Clinton will win 347 electoral votes

The PollyVote team has conducted the second round of its state-level expert survey. According to the experts’ judgment, Hillary Clinton will win 347 electoral votes, compared to 191 for Donald Trump.

This Electoral College forecast is similar to the previous survey’s results, although Clinton’s lead has considerably narrowed in a number of states, particularly Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada. That said, even if Clinton lost all five states, she would still end up with 273 electoral votes, three more than necessary to win the election.

The following map visualizes the experts’ median estimates regarding Clinton’s chance of winning each state.

In comparison, the latest PollyVote forecast, which also incorporates the results from the expert survey, predicts Clinton to gain 314 electoral votes, compared to 224 for Trump. This difference results from different forecasts for Ohio and North Carolina. While the experts predict Clinton to prevail in these states, the combined PollyVote forecasts currently favors Trump.

Method

We reached out to political scientists across the country and asked them two short questions:

  1. What share of the vote do you expect the nominees to receive in your home state?
  2. What do you think is Hillary Clinton’s chance of winning the election in your home state?

The survey was conducted from September 19 to 22. A total of 653 experts made estimates as requested. The number of experts by state ranged from 2 to 35. The table at the end of this post shows the number of respondents per state as well as the median answer for each question.

Clinton’s predicted
State N Chance of winning Two-party vote
District of Columbia 13 100% 94.6
Vermont 9 100% 66.7
Hawaii 2 100% 69.9
New York 25 99% 64.2
Massachusetts 20 99% 66.7
Maryland 26 99% 63.6
California 23 99% 62.2
Rhode Island 8 97% 62.7
Washington 11 96% 59.1
Illinois 25 95% 60.4
Delaware 11 95% 60.6
Connecticut 21 95% 60.3
Oregon 11 93% 64.0
New Jersey 5 90% 57.4
New Mexico 4 87% 59.6
Minnesota 17 85% 57.4
Colorado 9 80% 57.8
Wisconsin 14 78% 55.6
Virginia 35 75% 56.0
Pennsylvania 15 75% 56.9
Maine 12 75% 54.8
Michigan 14 70% 54.7
New Hampshire 16 64% 55.1
Florida 16 54% 52.7
North Carolina 22 54% 51.9
Nevada 5 52% 51.2
Ohio 9 51% 52.7
Iowa 15 51% 52.8
Alaska 3 45% 43.4
Arizona 19 40% 48.4
Missouri 11 40% 48.9
Georgia 20 35% 48.6
Arkansas 10 30% 44.2
Indiana 14 18% 48.6
Kansas 8 13% 46.1
Texas 24 13% 44.0
South Carolina 13 10% 45.2
North Dakota 5 10% 43.0
Utah 18 10% 43.6
Kentucky 4 10% 44.4
Wyoming 5 8% 44.0
Alabama 7 5% 40.4
West Virginia 8 5% 37.8
Montana 5 5% 47.7
Mississippi 15 5% 44.1
Louisiana 12 5% 43.2
Tennessee 12 3% 42.1
South Dakota 4 3% 42.2
Nebraska 3 2% 45.5
Idaho 11 1% 34.5
Oklahoma 9 1% 31.7

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