The PollyVote team has conducted the second round of its state-level expert survey. According to the experts’ judgment, Hillary Clinton will win 347 electoral votes, compared to 191 for Donald Trump.
This Electoral College forecast is similar to the previous survey’s results, although Clinton’s lead has considerably narrowed in a number of states, particularly Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada. That said, even if Clinton lost all five states, she would still end up with 273 electoral votes, three more than necessary to win the election.
The following map visualizes the experts’ median estimates regarding Clinton’s chance of winning each state.
In comparison, the latest PollyVote forecast, which also incorporates the results from the expert survey, predicts Clinton to gain 314 electoral votes, compared to 224 for Trump. This difference results from different forecasts for Ohio and North Carolina. While the experts predict Clinton to prevail in these states, the combined PollyVote forecasts currently favors Trump.
Method
We reached out to political scientists across the country and asked them two short questions:
- What share of the vote do you expect the nominees to receive in your home state?
- What do you think is Hillary Clinton’s chance of winning the election in your home state?
The survey was conducted from September 19 to 22. A total of 653 experts made estimates as requested. The number of experts by state ranged from 2 to 35. The table at the end of this post shows the number of respondents per state as well as the median answer for each question.
| Clinton’s predicted | |||
| State | N | Chance of winning | Two-party vote |
| District of Columbia | 13 | 100% | 94.6 |
| Vermont | 9 | 100% | 66.7 |
| Hawaii | 2 | 100% | 69.9 |
| New York | 25 | 99% | 64.2 |
| Massachusetts | 20 | 99% | 66.7 |
| Maryland | 26 | 99% | 63.6 |
| California | 23 | 99% | 62.2 |
| Rhode Island | 8 | 97% | 62.7 |
| Washington | 11 | 96% | 59.1 |
| Illinois | 25 | 95% | 60.4 |
| Delaware | 11 | 95% | 60.6 |
| Connecticut | 21 | 95% | 60.3 |
| Oregon | 11 | 93% | 64.0 |
| New Jersey | 5 | 90% | 57.4 |
| New Mexico | 4 | 87% | 59.6 |
| Minnesota | 17 | 85% | 57.4 |
| Colorado | 9 | 80% | 57.8 |
| Wisconsin | 14 | 78% | 55.6 |
| Virginia | 35 | 75% | 56.0 |
| Pennsylvania | 15 | 75% | 56.9 |
| Maine | 12 | 75% | 54.8 |
| Michigan | 14 | 70% | 54.7 |
| New Hampshire | 16 | 64% | 55.1 |
| Florida | 16 | 54% | 52.7 |
| North Carolina | 22 | 54% | 51.9 |
| Nevada | 5 | 52% | 51.2 |
| Ohio | 9 | 51% | 52.7 |
| Iowa | 15 | 51% | 52.8 |
| Alaska | 3 | 45% | 43.4 |
| Arizona | 19 | 40% | 48.4 |
| Missouri | 11 | 40% | 48.9 |
| Georgia | 20 | 35% | 48.6 |
| Arkansas | 10 | 30% | 44.2 |
| Indiana | 14 | 18% | 48.6 |
| Kansas | 8 | 13% | 46.1 |
| Texas | 24 | 13% | 44.0 |
| South Carolina | 13 | 10% | 45.2 |
| North Dakota | 5 | 10% | 43.0 |
| Utah | 18 | 10% | 43.6 |
| Kentucky | 4 | 10% | 44.4 |
| Wyoming | 5 | 8% | 44.0 |
| Alabama | 7 | 5% | 40.4 |
| West Virginia | 8 | 5% | 37.8 |
| Montana | 5 | 5% | 47.7 |
| Mississippi | 15 | 5% | 44.1 |
| Louisiana | 12 | 5% | 43.2 |
| Tennessee | 12 | 3% | 42.1 |
| South Dakota | 4 | 3% | 42.2 |
| Nebraska | 3 | 2% | 45.5 |
| Idaho | 11 | 1% | 34.5 |
| Oklahoma | 9 | 1% | 31.7 |
