Clinton leads by more than 5 points in new expert survey

The Pollyvote team has completed its 8th survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late July survey, conducted between July 29 and 31, 12 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.

All but one responding experts expected a Democratic win. The average forecast is that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will receive 52.7% of the two-party vote, with individual forecasts ranging from 48.5% to 55.4%. The expert forecast is thus 1.5 percentage points lower than in the previous survey, when the mean forecast was that Clinton will receive 54.2%.

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
  2. Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
  3. John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
  4. George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
  5. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  6. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  7. Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
  8. Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
  9. David Redlawsk (Rutgers University)
  10. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  11. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  12. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)