Table 1: National popular two-party vote forecasts
Method Dem Rep
Expert judgment
Index models
Econometric models
Prediction markets
The PollyVote predicts the two-party popular vote-shares in US presidential elections by combining forecasts from different component methods. Table 1¬†shows the latest PollyVote forecast¬†as well as the currently available forecasts from each component method. The chart below shows how the PollyVote popular vote forecast for this year’s presidential election has developed over time since its first release on January 1, 2016.

Some component methods, such as polls and index models, rely on information about who the parties’ nominees might be. Until the nominees are finally known, PollyVote identifies the most likely nominees based on forecasts from PredictWise, an aggregator of prediction market prices. The annotations in the chart (A to D) show how the likely nominees have changed over time.