The PollyVote has provided highly accurate forecasts of U.S. presidential elections since 2004. The original goal of the project was to demonstrate advances in forecasting research by applying them to election forecasting.
In particular, the PollyVote strictly adheres to two of the most important principles derived from forecasting research:
- Combine forecasts from different methods that use different information.
- Keep it simple: There is no evidence that complexity improves accuracy.
The table on the right shows the latest PollyVote national popular two-party vote forecast as well as the forecasts from each component method. The first chart above shows how the PollyVote’s popular vote forecast for the 2016 election has developed over time. The second chart shows the latest forecast of the Electoral College.